Last Tuesday, I was reviewing bids for a mid-sized HVAC retrofit project in Dallas. The aluminum coils just jumped in price again. By how much? Around 10 percent higher than last quarter. That may not sound like much until you realize those coils make up a big chunk of the material cost. So if you’re scratching your head over aluminum coils cost increase headlines, you’re not alone.

Look, the truth is HVAC coil pricing 2025 is shaping up to be a challenge none of us want but all of us have to face. Tariffs, supply chain bottlenecks, and raw material costs have combined to push prices up. It’s not politics. It’s cold hard numbers.

What’s Driving the Aluminum Coil Price Increase?

First, the aluminum tariff impact. You remember the tariffs slapped on aluminum imports a few years ago? They’re still playing out in the market. The U.S. government put a 10% tariff on imported aluminum back in 2018, and while some exemptions came and went, the baseline cost for aluminum raw material remains elevated. That tariff cost is baked into every coil price now.

Here’s the kicker: even after tariffs, domestic aluminum producers can’t keep up with demand. That means manufacturers have to pay more for raw aluminum billets. For example, I tracked the commodity price for primary aluminum at the London Metal Exchange (LME) over the last 18 months. It climbed steadily from around $1,800 per metric ton to nearly $2,400 in April 2024. That’s a 33% jump. Imagine how that hits coil manufacturers’ margins.

Then add in energy costs. Aluminum smelting is energy-intensive. Texas power prices spiked last winter, pushing up production costs for US-based coil manufacturers like Trane and Daikin. They’re passing those costs straight onto contractors.

And don’t forget the supply chain snarls. After COVID hit, ports backed up, shipping container rates soared, and raw material lead times stretched from weeks to months. A coil order placed in January could take until June to arrive in some cases.

Specific Numbers: What Are Contractors Seeing?

Here’s what one HVAC contractor told me last week. They’re bidding on a 50-ton rooftop unit replacement. The aluminum coil alone cost them $7,847 last year for that tonnage coil. This year? $8,631. That’s a $784 difference for just one coil. Multiply that across a commercial job with multiple coils and you’re easily looking at $5,000 to $10,000 more in material costs.

That’s not pocket change. And the coil price increase HVAC market-wide is pushing many contractors to rethink their budgets.

What About Alternatives? Copper or Stainless Steel?

Some contractors ask about switching to copper coils. Copper prices have also climbed but not as drastically as aluminum. Copper runs about $9,800 per ton right now versus aluminum’s $2,400, but copper coils are heavier and more expensive to fabricate. Plus, copper supply is tight globally. It’s not a quick fix.

Stainless steel coils? They’re even pricier and less common in HVAC applications. Plus, they require special fabrication skills that many contractors don’t have on hand.

So switching metals isn’t a simple answer. And the market’s too volatile for long-term bets.

HVAC Coil Pricing 2025: What To Expect

The truth is aluminum coil prices will likely stay elevated through 2025. The aluminum tariff impact isn’t going away soon, and energy prices remain unpredictable. The geopolitical situation in places like Russia and China also plays a role in raw material availability.

Expect a 5% to 10% annual increase on aluminum coils through next year. I’ve seen some manufacturers already announce price adjustments effective July 2025, pushing coil prices up by 7% to 9%. So don’t budget for last year’s prices.

How Contractors Can Manage These Cost Increases

Look, the market is tight but you’re how contractors handle tariff price increases not powerless.

First, lock in pricing early. Many manufacturers like Lennox and Carrier now offer fixed-price contracts for coils if you order 90 days in advance. It costs a small premium upfront but saves you from last-minute price spikes.

Second, build better contingency buffers into your bids. I recommend at least 10% over last year’s coil costs, especially for projects with long lead times.

Third, explore inventory buy-downs. Some contractors I work with keep a small stockpile of standard coil sizes to avoid delays and price jumps. It ties up working capital but can save headaches.

Fourth, negotiate with suppliers for bulk discounts. If you have multiple projects lined up, consolidate your coil orders. Trane gave one of my clie

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